Back to The Blast – After a Bears AutopsyAfter the joy of Worcester on Wednesday its time for …. Worcestershire again but this time it is in Taunton with a white ball, coloured clothes and under the lights.
It seems hardly fair, given their stellar performance in the last round of the Bob Willis Trophy, that Somerset have to play again so soon and that this is another must-win game. The inescapable fact is that Somerset are in this position owes much to the defeat last time out to Warwickshire.
That Warwickshire game! Let’s deal first with Somerset’s target being higher than Warwickshire’s total. It won’t surprise you to know that I’ve spent a lot of time looking at Duckworth Lewis Stern to understand the principles in the past and much as I’d like not to I have to say that the target was entirely fair. It is all about adjusting for the fact that Warwickshire, when they set out at the start of their innings, planned for a 20-over game not 12. We can all remember games in the Sunday League and even a World Cup semi-final where the use of average run rate made a farce of the finale post-rain so we have to accept the fluctuations in fortune this method deals us from time to time.
The issue for me was that having been required to bowl one more over it went for 23. There is no point apportioning blame on Ollie Sale he was put in a very difficult position. Whether that was unfair? Probably. Whether it was poor leadership (not captaincy – remember they had enough time to plan during the rain break)? Almost certainly. Whether it was a lesson learned? Hopefully.
For me, the problem was in Somerset’s approach to the chase. The top three all batted like it was a 1.2 over game not a 12 over game, neither Babar or Steve Davies will look back on their dismissals (third and first balls respectively) with any pleasure. The loss of two wickets in seven balls in any T20, let alone a shortened one, will always make winning far more unlikely as was the case here.
Despite all that Somerset, in the form of Tom Lammonby and Roelof van der Merwe took us very close, which only added to the feeling that a little more initial circumspection from the top three would have been wise.
I stand by what I said on the Cricket Show last week, Warwickshire are a poor side. I also stand by what I said more widely about T20, on any given day the chances of the worst team beating the best team are much greater the shorter the format.
At the half-way point of the group stage, Somerset are joint third with Warwickshire two points behind that lot from Bristol and four adrift of leaders Northants. With the COVID scare that caused the abandonment of the BWT game on Sunday afternoon apparently behind them both, appear to be free to play the remainder of their T20 schedule.
Somerset still have matters in their own hands despite the loss to Warwickshire, they have two to play against Gloucestershire and a home game next Friday against the Steelbacks. Add in the fact that the top two play each other tonight.
With qualification only being assured for the top two (the best two of the three third-placed sides also go to the semi-finals) Somerset really should be targeting a home quarter-final which means they need to either overhaul both the teams above them or finish second and have the best second-placed record.
Anthony Gibson’s view is that Somerset need to win four of the five remaining games to do this and therein lies the difficult decision. Do we go for it, playing our strongest side or do we ensure the key red ball players are protected ahead of the Lords final and see where the youngsters get?
Personally, I’d pick the strongest side we can for the next three games, that still gives a week’s cushion before the final starts, and see where we get to. If we are still in with a shout mid next week, then we have to make some tough calls. If we are out of contention we can rotate. But I’ll be keeping everything crossed we don’t get a repeat of Hildy’s injury last Friday.
The options are slightly limited by injury and hampered further by Tom Banton’s unavailability for the rest of the tournament, but a fine balancing act is required. Please share your thoughts on the Forum.
As far as this evening’s game with Worcestershire goes there are three questions in my mind; What side will Jason Kerr pick? (there is a forum post for you to contribute) will Worcestershire be in end of season mode now their chances in both competitions are all but gone and how much impact will the dew that will inevitably come in later in the game have?
With regard to the team I’d go for; Babar, Davies, Abell, Byrom, Lammonby, Gregory, Green, Overton, Davey, Sale, Waller.
As for Worcestershire’s attitude, it will be hard for them to motivate themselves, so it is a question of professional pride and what side they pick. They are probably sick of the sight of Somerset so some fresh faces above and beyond the T20 specialists would make sense but if Somerset get on top of the game early Worcestershire may not have much appetite for the battle.
If I was captain I’d want to win the toss more than ever as the impact of the dew now we are into the middle of September could be significant. The pitch might quicken up a fraction in the second innings and bowling and fielding will become trickier.
Enjoy the game, let’s hope we go into Sunday’s game with “that lot” full of confidence.
